Concentrated and Diffuse
What seems to be happening now in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is another gureilla war.
If it is true that Israel is currently the fourth greatest world military power, then a gureilla war would seem the only reasonable tactic opposition in the Arab world might take. Israel's great military power means that no Arab nation could prevail in a direct confrontation. In this case, such a confrontation might be characterized as a fight between two men, one with a sword and another with a knife. The odds greatly favor the man with the sword given that both are equal in all other respects. But a gureilla war might be characterized as a man with a sword confronting a swarm of bees in a room full of butterflys. The man might be able to cut down a few bees at a time, but he is also likely to cut down a number of butterflys in the process.
Israel does not seem to be in a good position in the present situation since it does not seem to have any neighborhood allies. Gureilla movements are defeated by their environments. This environment includes the people they exist or hide among. In other words, they are more likely to be defeated by other bees rather than the man wielding a sword.
In the past, the Arab world's struggle seems to have been weakened by two conditions, first was Israel's military superiority, but second was that the Arab governments were beholden to and perhaps under the control of the western powers. Is it possible that now, the Arab governments have become more independent of the west, primarily because they have gained control of their dominant resource, oil. And by controling oil, they have leverage over the west. In other words, the power relationship has been reversed: The west now needs the support of Arab governments (who control their own oil) more than the Arab government need the support of the west?
If this is the case, then the west -- and probably in this case, primarily the United States -- will have a difficult itme pressuring Arab governments to fight their local gureillas. If the United States cannot get the Arab governments to act as gureilla surrogates, the groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Qaeda will continue harass the west and its surrogate.
If it is true that Israel is currently the fourth greatest world military power, then a gureilla war would seem the only reasonable tactic opposition in the Arab world might take. Israel's great military power means that no Arab nation could prevail in a direct confrontation. In this case, such a confrontation might be characterized as a fight between two men, one with a sword and another with a knife. The odds greatly favor the man with the sword given that both are equal in all other respects. But a gureilla war might be characterized as a man with a sword confronting a swarm of bees in a room full of butterflys. The man might be able to cut down a few bees at a time, but he is also likely to cut down a number of butterflys in the process.
Israel does not seem to be in a good position in the present situation since it does not seem to have any neighborhood allies. Gureilla movements are defeated by their environments. This environment includes the people they exist or hide among. In other words, they are more likely to be defeated by other bees rather than the man wielding a sword.
In the past, the Arab world's struggle seems to have been weakened by two conditions, first was Israel's military superiority, but second was that the Arab governments were beholden to and perhaps under the control of the western powers. Is it possible that now, the Arab governments have become more independent of the west, primarily because they have gained control of their dominant resource, oil. And by controling oil, they have leverage over the west. In other words, the power relationship has been reversed: The west now needs the support of Arab governments (who control their own oil) more than the Arab government need the support of the west?
If this is the case, then the west -- and probably in this case, primarily the United States -- will have a difficult itme pressuring Arab governments to fight their local gureillas. If the United States cannot get the Arab governments to act as gureilla surrogates, the groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Qaeda will continue harass the west and its surrogate.
posted by Godel at 2:01 PM
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